Election Day

"At such hours, the Mariposa barber shop would become a very Palace of Slumber, and as you waited your turn in one of the wooden armchairs beside the wall, what with the quiet of the hour, and the low drone of Jeff's conversation, the buzzing of the flies against the window pane, and the measured tick of the clock above the mirror, your head sank dreaming on your breast, and the Mariposa Newspacket rustled unheeded on the floor.  It makes one drowsy just to think of it!"--Sunshine Sketches of a Little Town

It was Election Day last week.  My voting precinct got changed at the last minute, and maybe that's why I got sent to the front of the line!  My candidate had to quit the race after some social media post about Canadian vaccines ending up in Israel, but I voted for her anyway. (So sue me.) The result was like the 1977 Ontario election where Bill Davis' Big Blue Machine called a snap election in the hope of regaining a Conservative majority, but they only gained a handful of seats.

Once again, I did some figuring to see how the election would have turned out with the German-style mixed proportional representation that I favour.  In this system about 70% of seats would be A (first past the post like today); not less than 25% would be B (allotted so that A and B seats together would be as close as possible to the popular votes); and not less than 4% would be C (given to the leading party except if its A seats alone were greater than its rightful A and B share, in which case they would go to the other parties to bring them closer to their rightful share). The three territorial seats would be unchanged, with 2 Liberal and 1 NDP.

On the left I show the actual result for each province, on the right first A (assuming the same proportion as in the actual election, then B and C in brackets, then the sum of all three.

Newfoundland

Liberal             6    |    3 (1)    4

Conservative    1    |    1 (1)    2

NDP                       |       (1)    1

PEI

Liberal              4    |    2(1)    3    

Conservative           |      (1)    1

Nova Scotia

Liberal              8    |    5 (1)    6

Conservative    3     |    2 (1)    3

NDP                        |       (2)    2

New Brunswick

Liberal              6    |    4 (1)    5

Conservative     4    |    2 (1)    3

NDP                        |       (1)    1

PPC                         |       (1)    1

Quebec

Liberal            34    |    24 (4)    28

Conservative   10    |      7 (7)    14

NDP                  1    |      1 (7)    8

BQ                   33    |    24 (1)    25

Green                       |         (2)    2

FPC                          |         (1)    1

Ontario

Liberal             78    |    56            56

Conservative    37    |    26 (13)    39

NDP                   5    |      4 (14)    18

PPC                          |           (5)    5

Green                   1  |           (2)    2

Manitoba

Liberal                4    |    2 (2)    4

Conservative       7    |    5 (1)    6

NDP                    3    |    2 (1)    3

PPC                           |        (1)    1

Saskatchewan

Liberal                        |    (1)    1

Conservative       14    |    9      9

NDP                            |    (3)    3

PPC                             |    (1)    1

Alberta

Liberal                    2    |    1 (4)   5

Conservative        30    |    22       22

NDP                       2    |    1 (4)    5

PPC                              |        (1)    1

BC

Liberal                 15    |   11 (2)    13 

Conservative        13    |    9 (6)    15

NDP                     13    |     9 (4)    13

PPC                              |        (2)    2

Green                     1    |        (1)    1

The overall result:

Liberal                 159    |    108 (17)    125

Conservative        119    |      83 (31)    114

NDP                       25    |       17 (37)    54

BQ                         33    |        24   (1)    25

PPC                                |             (11)    11

Green                       2    |               (5)    5

FPC                                |               (1)    1

Under this system, the Liberals would have fewer seats, mostly in Ontario.  The Bloc Quebecois would also be reduced, while the Conservatives would be about the same.  The NDP would have most of the gains, the rest going to small parties.

The numbers don't quite add up, but it's too late at night to figure it out!