Post-election analysis

"I'll sit here for a while yet and smoke my cigar, just as usual.  It tastes terrible, but I know it's good and that will have to suffice for me today"--The Magic Mountain

The election disappointed me.  I was hoping that the Liberals and NDP would both fall short of a majority, and because (plausibly) neither party would accept the other as Prime Minister they'd form a coalition with the Greens and make Elizabeth May P.M. (Sort of like the coalition in that Danish show Borgen.)

I analyzed the results and determined what would have happened with the system of proportional representation I'd prefer.  Under this system, about 70% of the seats would be Category A, chosen the same way they are now; 25% Category B, allotted so that A and B together would match the proportion of the popular vote*; 5% Category C, which would normally go the party that got the highest popular vote overall, except in provinces where one party's A seats alone were greater than its proportional share of A and B seats, in which case the C seats would go to the other parties to fill out their seat shortfall*. 

I gave Ontario 4 C seats, Quebec 3, B.C. and Alberta 2 each, and every other province 1; and for B seats each province got the smallest number not smaller than one quarter of their non-C seats.  The territories would be unchanged, with one seat in the A category.

(*=or as close as possible)

Here's the actual results under "first past the post":

Province  Liberal  Conservative  NDP  Green  Bloc Quebecois

Nfld           7

PEI            4

NS           11

NB          10

PQ          40           12                   16                  10

Ont         80           33                     8

Man          7             5                     2

Sask          1           10                     3

Alta           4           29                     1

BC          17           10                    14        1

Terrs         3

________________________________________

Total      184           99                   44        1       10

Now here's the results under my system:  first the A seats, followed by the sum of B and C in brackets.

Province  Liberal  Conservative  NDP  Green  Bloc Quebecois

Nfld         4 (1)          (1)                   (1)

PEI          2 (1)          (1)

NS           7                (2)                   (2)

NB           6                (2)                   (2)

PQ          28 (3)       9 (3)              12 (7)        (2)      7 (7)

Ont         57          24 (17)              6 (13)       (4)

Man         5 (2)        4 (1)               1 (1)

Sask         1 (3)        7                    2 (1)

Alta          3 (7)      20                    1 (3)

BC          12 (4)       7 (5)             10 (1)       1 (2)

Te4rs         3

_______________________________________________

Total      128 (21)   71 (32)        32 (31)      1 (8)     7 (7)

Overall     149          103               63              9           14

The Liberals would have two-thirds of the seats in the Maritimes and Newfoundland, instead of every single one; two-fifths of the Quebec seats, instead of over half; and just under half the Ontario seats, instead of almost two-thirds.

I can dream, can't I?