Sunday, June 10, 2018

Fun with electoral numbers

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontario-election-results-2018-a-map-of-the-live-results/

I thought I'd look at the figures from the Ontario election and determine how they'd look with a mixed proportional representation scheme like I'd prefer.  Start with the 124 seats that were elected by the "first past the post" system, of which the Conservatives won 76, the NDP 40, Liberals 7 and Greens 1. (BTW, though I'm a New Democrat myself, I'm glad that the Greens won a seat and the Liberals weren't completely shut out.)

Suppose we added 26 seats to be determined indirectly, for an even total of 150. (In this way, the system could be introduced right away without a new election!) Suppose that there were 124 A-seats, elected directly just as today, and 22 B-seats to be allotted so that the total would be as close to the popular vote as possible. And suppose that the other 4 were C-seats, to be awarded to the party with the highest popular vote and improve the chance of a stable majority government, except in one case.  That case would be if the leading party's A-seats alone were greater than the number of A- and B-seats together that matched its popular-vote share, in which case they'd go to the opposition parties so that their total number would be closer to their own share.

Start with the total of 146 A- and B-seats.  Multiplying each party's popular vote percentage by 146 would give the Conservatives 59.1, the NDP 49.0, the Liberals 28.6 and the Greens 6.7.  But the Tories actually won 76 seats, so this will be the exceptional case where the other four seats go to the opposition parties.  Even so, they'll be thirteen seats short of their popular-vote share, so we'll have to deduct four seats from the NDP and the Greens, and five from the Liberals because they're just over 28.5.

This result would give the Tories the same 76 seats, the NDP 45 (40 elected directly/5 indirectly), the Liberals 24 (7/17), and the Greens 3 (1/2).  The Conservatives would have a skin-of-their-teeth majority.

I can dream, can't I?

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